A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
