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A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.